Xcoins™ Official

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building standing before an artistic background of falling Bitcoin charts
June 12, 2024

Is Crypto on Course for a Rebound Today? Traders Prepare For Key Central Bank Decision

June 12, 2024

The cryptocurrency market has taken a sudden downturn as investors brace for significant economic data releases and a key Fed interest rate decision due today at 2 p.m. ET. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies, have experienced notable price drops. As of today, Bitcoin is trading just below $68,000, and Ethereum is trading just under $3,600. 

This article delves into the factors contributing to the current market sentiment and what to expect from the crucial Fed meeting today.

The Impact of Upcoming Economic Data and the FOMC Meeting

The key event causing anxiety among investors is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 12. 

Market participants are also closely watching the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which provides crucial insights into inflation trends in the U.S. economy. 

These events are pivotal as they will influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, which have a significant impact on financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Movement

Bitcoin and Ethereum have both seen their prices drop significantly in the lead-up to these events. Bitcoin has fallen below the $68,000 mark, a critical support level that traders were watching closely. 

Similarly, Ethereum is trading below $3,600. The bearish trend can be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes of the FOMC meeting and the US inflation data.

Institutional Interest Remains Strong

Despite the current bearish trend, institutional interest in cryptocurrencies remains robust. Recent data shows consistent inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, which had 19 consecutive days of net inflows before experiencing a single-day outflow of $65 million on June 10. 

This trend indicates that institutions are still seeking exposure to Bitcoin, viewing it as a valuable asset despite short-term volatility.

Inflation Data and Interest Rate Decisions

The CPI inflation is estimated at 3.4%, with core CPI expected to be around 3.5%. These figures are crucial as they will inform the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to adjust interest rates. 

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a high market expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates between 525 and 550 basis points.

Chart: What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Via CME FedWatch Tool
What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Via CME FedWatch Tool

What to Expect from Today’s Market

Today’s market moves will likely heavily depend on the CPI data. If the CPI prints at 3.3% or lower, it could trigger a bullish trend, with Bitcoin potentially attempting a breakout. Conversely, if the CPI comes in at 3.5% or higher, Bitcoin is likely to face a correction. 

Despite the short-term uncertainty, the outlook remains optimistic, with higher Bitcoin prices broadly expected in the medium to long term.

The Role of Recent U.S. Jobs Data

Recent U.S. employment data, which exceeded expectations, has lowered the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut. 

This data has contributed to the current bearish sentiment in the crypto market, as higher employment numbers can lead to a more hawkish stance from the Fed regarding interest rates.

Recent Global Central Bank Decisions and Market Liquidity

The Federal Reserve is likely to struggle to keep interest rates high while other central banks are cutting borrowing costs. 

Notably, the European Central Bank which has just lowered borrowing costs for the first time in almost five years and the Bank of Canada which has just reduced rates for the first time since March 2020, signaling the start of a monetary easing cycle among G7 nations. 

This trend is likely to lead to increased market liquidity, potentially boosting demand for investments like cryptocurrencies. 

What This Means for Crypto Investors

For crypto investors, the current market conditions underscore the importance of staying informed and being prepared for volatility. 

The recent price drops sweeping crypto are seen by many savvy investors as a key potential buying opportunity in light of the broader market conditions.

While the immediate outlook is uncertain, the massive recent interest from institutions and the recent easing of monetary policies by key global central banks could make now an opportune moment to buy the dip!

As always, this article does not constitute financial advice. You should be sure to do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making a major investment decision.

To stay up to date on all things crypto, like Xcoins on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and LinkedIn.

Subscribe to our newsletter