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October 16, 2023

Bitcoin Rising Sharply on Fresh ETF Approval Hopes

October 16, 2023

As markets digest higher-than-expected CPI figures and the pessimistic release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes, Bloomberg analysts up the chance of a Bitcoin Spot ETF to 90%! We like those odds and the surging price of BTC today suggests the markets do too!

Meanwhile, is Bitcoin the ultimate hedge against inflation? It is a question that is nearly as old as Bitcoin itself. But, thanks to a new report from coin analysts, Ecoinometrics, we may have an answer.

And just in case that wasn’t enough for one week, Dogecoin payment bridges were discovered in the underbelly of Tesla’s source code.

Let’s dive into this week’s roundup. 

Possibility of Spot Bitcoin ETF by January 2024 raised to 90%

Anticipation regarding the launch of a Spot Bitcoin ETF reached fever pitch during the week as renowned Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart expressed their belief in a 90% probability of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval by January 2024.

According to a recent tweet, their optimism is based on recent revisions to the spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus submitted by Ark Invest and 21Shares, which seem to indicate constructive engagement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Tweet from Bloomberg Analyst, James Seyffart
Tweet from Bloomberg Analyst, James Seyffart



The revised prospectus from Ark Invest and 21Shares expanded to at least five pages, reflecting the SEC’s request for additional information concerning the proposed spot Bitcoin ETF.

This back-and-forth dialogue between sponsors and regulators, though customary for new launches, holds particular significance in this case as it signals the SEC’s commitment to reviewing Ark’s proposal.

“The interaction between the SEC and fund sponsors follows standard procedure for new launches, but it’s unprecedented for spot Bitcoin ETF applications. This suggests the SEC’s active involvement in pushing for the approval of Ark’s proposal,” noted the Bloomberg analysts.

Alongside Bloomberg analyst predictions, the crypto community was also celebrating on Friday as the SEC decided not to appeal a recent court decision involving Grayscale’s application for a Bitcoin ETF.

In October 2021, Grayscale applied to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Spot Bitcoin ETF. An application that was subsequently rejected by the SEC in July 2022.

However, in August 2023, that decision was reversed thanks to an appeal submitted by Grayscale.

The SEC had until midnight on Friday to appeal the reversal, which has now come and gone.

As a result, it is now highly likely the SEC will have to review Grayscale’s proposal once again, adding to the anticipation that a Bitcoin ETF might be successful in the near future.

Should Bloomberg analysts’ prediction prove accurate, approving any spot Bitcoin ETF would mark a milestone in the cryptocurrency industry, opening up new avenues for investors and paving the way for increased mainstream adoption.

Tweet from Bitcoin Archive outlining SEC’s decision not to appeal Grayscale’s August court victory
Tweet from Bitcoin Archive outlining SEC’s decision not to appeal Grayscale’s August court victory



Bitcoin – the inflation killer?

Some argue that Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge should be defined by its ability to rise during periods of inflation and fall when inflation subsides. 

Yet, according to a new report by Ecoinometrics, this expectation might be setting the bar a little too high. 

Even gold, a traditional store of value and widely used as an asset to beat ongoing inflation, doesn’t perfectly mirror the rapid fluctuations of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a metric commonly used as a proxy for inflation.

Therefore, Ecoinometrics analysts state that a more accurate definition of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge should be whether Bitcoin outpaces the CPI over the same time frame. 

Over a set time period, if Bitcoin grows in value quicker than the CPI increases, this suggests that the returned value from Bitcoin is outpacing the ongoing erosion of fiat currency. 

And based on this definition, it is good news for those using Bitcoin to combat the devaluation of fiat currencies.

Based on the accompanying chart from the Ecoinometrics report, historically, those holding Bitcoin for longer than 4 years have beaten inflation by over 20% (blue-shaded area).

The returns from Bitcoin in excess of inflation between two dates
The returns from Bitcoin in excess of inflation between two dates



Bearish US macros weigh heavy on price

The CPI exhibited remarkable stability last week, maintaining a 3.7% yearly rate in September, mirroring the August figures and surpassing expectations that had pegged it at 3.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

September’s annual core CPI, which excludes the impact of volatile food and energy prices, also matched preliminary projections with a 4.1% increase. 

US CPI data from 2018 to 2023
US CPI data from 2018 to 2023


Combining this CPI data with the release of the Fed’s latest FOMC minutes, which suggested there may be a pressing need for further interest rate hikes, has ignited pessimism among investors seeking respite from escalating interest rates.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving its benchmark borrowing rate untouched at the upcoming meeting has now climbed to 93.8%, up from 72.9% a week ago. 

The FOMC is slated to convene on Halloween to make its next interest rate decision.

Dogecoin clues emerge in Tesla’s source code

According to a recent tweet from prominent crypto community member, @MartyParty, references to Dogecoin are embedded within Tesla’s checkout source code.

The influencer has now urged Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, to personally verify the findings.

Taking to social media platform ‘X,’ @MartyParty broke the news, exclaiming, “DOGE in the source code of Cybertruck checkout page. I verified it myself. Elon Musk, please verify it too.”

Cybertruck checkout page depicting Dogecoin payment bridge
Cybertruck checkout page depicting Dogecoin payment bridge



To corroborate his findings, @MartyParty recommended a verification process that involved using the Brave browser’s inspect feature to delve into the JavaScript (JS) source code within the “commons” section. 

After meticulously searching for “Doge,” the influencer claimed to have uncovered the enigmatic mention.

The findings were subsequently verified by other news outlets and figures in the industry.

According to official information from Tesla, Dogecoin is currently the sole cryptocurrency accepted for specific product purchases. 

To transact using Dogecoin for Tesla merchandise, buyers must possess a Dogecoin wallet.

Notably, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has publicly displayed his enthusiasm for Dogecoin on numerous occasions. His social media posts consistently radiate support and admiration for this beloved meme-based cryptocurrency.

The new discovery has sparked speculation, but it remains unconfirmed whether Tesla has concrete plans to integrate Dogecoin into all of its products. 

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