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November 13, 2023

Will All 12 Bitcoin ETFs Be Approved This Week? 4 Days Remain

November 13, 2023

The month of ‘Moonvember’ continues to live up to high expectations.

As Bloomberg analysts confirmed that a short approval window for all Bitcoin ETFs opened up last week, the price of BTC exploded to 18-month highs.

This was closely followed by Ethereum which pierced the psychological level of $2000 as BlackRock unveiled plans for an ETH spot ETF.

Meanwhile, market excitement has driven a flippening that involves Bitcoin futures contracts and fresh on-chain data has highlighted just how robust buying activity currently is.

Let’s dive into this week’s roundup!

Bitcoin puts in 18-month high after hopes of ETF approval are ignited

Analysts from Bloomberg, James Seyffart, and Eric Balchunas, announced last week that a crucial approval “window” for Bitcoin ETFs has now opened. 

Commencing from November 9 in the United States, and extending until November 17, the SEC currently has the opportunity to approve all 12 open Bitcoin ETF applications.

Tweet from James Seyffart
Tweet from James Seyffart

4 days now remain before the window closes.

The urgency of this limited window stems from the SEC’s extension of the deadline for several pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, with November 8 marking the final day of the comment period. 

The comment period for three filings, including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Bitcoin ETF, is then set to recommence from November 17 onwards.

Notably, Seyffart suggested that the SEC retains the technical authority to decide on nine of the twelve applications at any point before January 10. 

However, many in the industry believe that the SEC could be inclined to approve all 12 applications at the same time to remove first-mover advantages.

Despite the absence of guaranteed approval for the spot Bitcoin ETFs, both analysts predict a compelling 90% likelihood of approval before January 10, 2024.

In the midst of this ETF anticipation, crypto asset manager Grayscale has reportedly entered into discussions with the SEC regarding its application to convert its trust product, GBTC, into a spot Bitcoin ETF. 

This development, reported by CoinDesk on November 9, indicates that Grayscale has been actively engaging with the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance following its court victory on August 29.

The heightened prospect of a Bitcoin ETF approval has infused renewed optimism into the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin surged to a new yearly high of $38,000 and has maintained a position above $37,000 over the weekend.

Grayscale logo behind gold btc coins

Ethereum soars above $2000 on BlackRock ETF application

The reason why Ethereum soared last week can be summed up by one word – BlackRock.

Global asset management giant BlackRock has set its sights on Ethereum, filing with the Nasdaq stock exchange for an “iShares Ethereum Trust.” 

Just like BlackRock’s recent Bitcoin ETF submission, the proposed ETF, trading under the ticker “ETH,” aims to provide investors with a seamless avenue to capitalize on Ethereum’s price movements within the familiar framework of a traditional stock exchange. 

The announcement on Thursday had an immediate impact on Ethereum’s price – propelling the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency beyond the $2,100 mark; a milestone unseen since April.

For the month, Ethereum has witnessed an impressive gain of over 30%, and its year-on-year performance has soared by a remarkable 85%. 

BlackRock’s move now adds a new layer of optimism to Ethereum’s trajectory.

The development also aligns with a broader trend, as multiple Ethereum futures ETFs have now entered the U.S. market. 

ProShares, VanEck, Bitwise, Valkyrie, Kelly, and Volshares collectively introduced nine ETFs on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, signaling a significant expansion in investment options.

This development opens doors to substantial new investments, possibly running into billions of dollars.

Ethereum 30-day price window
Ethereum 30-day price window

The Bitcoin futures flippening

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has eclipsed Binance’s stronghold on Bitcoin futures open interest, which marks a significant shift in the cryptocurrency derivatives landscape. 

This development comes as Bitcoin recently surged past the $37,000 threshold for the first time in over 18 months.

Traditionally for Bitcoin futures exposure, Binance has dominated the market. 

However, the CME’s ascendancy in Bitcoin futures open interest has prompted market analysts to discuss the intriguing phenomenon of a “flippening” in the market dynamics between these two prominent platforms.

Open interest, a crucial metric in futures and options markets, serves as a gauge for the total number of outstanding contracts. 

According to data collated by CoinGlass, interest on CME currently stands at $4.20 billion while Binance open interest stands at $ billion.

This shift in dominance raises questions about whether CME’s growing influence in Bitcoin futures will address historical concerns voiced by the SEC regarding the depth of Bitcoin markets and the potential for market manipulation.

News of the flippening was warmly welcomed by crypto investors as the CME is almost exclusively used by institutional players, indicating that institutions are becoming increasingly interested in gaining exposure to crypto. 

Bitcoin futures open interest: CME vs Binance
Bitcoin futures open interest: CME vs Binance

Everyone is stacking Bitcoin!

This is, arguably what FOMO looks like in a single chart.

The most recent analysis report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shed light on a remarkable trend in Bitcoin accumulation across all investor groups. 

The pivotal metric under scrutiny is the “Accumulation Trend Score,” a gauge that meticulously tracks the behavior exhibited by Bitcoin investors.

Derived from a 30-day observation of changes in holder balances, this indicator also considers the scale of entities engaged in accumulation and distribution activities. 

A value nearing 1 indicates recent accumulation, while values approaching 0 suggest prevalent distribution trends among these holders.

Throughout the year, the Bitcoin market has witnessed phases marked by substantial distribution events across all investor groups, exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price, as anticipated. 

Conversely, an upward trend is observed when there is a harmonious inflow from diverse investor groups.

Remarkably, during previous accumulation phases, all investor groups did not exhibit synchronized behavior. 

However, late October witnessed a distinctive shift in the market dynamics, with all Bitcoin groups embarking on a buying spree that has persisted in subsequent days. 

This was not just ordinary accumulation; the Accumulation Trend Score remained consistently dark blue, indicating robust buying activity.

Bitcoin accumulation trend score
Bitcoin accumulation trend score

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