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December 11, 2023

Crypto Overtakes Stock Market Giants

December 11, 2023

As the latest crypto market rally continues to push Bitcoin and Ethereum higher, the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is beginning to overtake stock market giants.

In addition to outpacing stocks, Glassnode provided a dramatic backdrop, announcing that Bitcoin’s triumphant rise has led to the breakout from on-chain thresholds.

Meanwhile, VanEck outlined 15 predictions for 2024 and has decided to name its upcoming Bitcoin Spot ETF “HODL,” proving that finance can have its fun too! 

With 2024 predictions to explore, let’s get started. 

Crypto market cap rises above giants Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia

Contrary to skeptics who speculated its demise during the bear market, Bitcoin’s 2023 rally has propelled it to a staggering $850 billion market cap. 

Likewise, Ethereum has followed suit and climbed to a $280 billion market cap.

In turn, both have contributed to the overall crypto market reaching a colossal $1.5 trillion—outpacing giants like Berkshire Hathaway, Nvidia, and Tesla, and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with industry behemoth Amazon.

The total market cap of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market
The total market cap of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market. Via Ecoinometrics

These are asset values not seen in crypto since Q2 of 2022.

According to Ecoinometrics, the recent surge in prices has rekindled investor interest, prompting a wake-up call for those who may have overlooked the digital asset class. 

The concept of reflexivity plays a pivotal role in this awakening, emphasizing the cyclical relationship between rising prices and increased desirability. 

As Bitcoin reasserts itself as a major asset class, the narrative remains robust, with the looming specter of a recession serving as the only potential disruptor.

New ATHs in Q4 2024 according to VanEck 

Renowned asset management firm VanEck has shared an extensive list of 15 crypto predictions for the year 2024, offering insights into the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency market. 

Among the noteworthy projections are expectations of a US recession and SEC approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

However, the standout prediction from VanEck is the expectation of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

This surge is believed to be potentially fueled by political events and regulatory shifts following a US presidential election. 

But VanEck also believes that the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs will lead to the inflow of $2.4 billion into the digital asset propelling it to new heights.

Ethereum was also a focal point in VanEck’s predictions, with expectations for the second-largest cryptocurrency to outperform major tech stocks.

VanEck also highlighted that Ethereum would likely outpace Bitcoin with regards to returns but the market is very unlikely to see the fabled ‘flippening’ where Ethereum’s market cap overtakes that of Bitcoin.

ETH:BTC ratio between 2021 and 2023
ETH:BTC ratio between 2021 and 2023

The introduction of EIP-4844 in 2024 is expected to enhance transaction efficiency and scalability for layer 2 chains, including Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, and others. It is, therefore, expected to boost overall activity on the Ethereum network.

Other predictions inside the report include all-time highs for NFT trading activity, stablecoin use, and spot trading on decentralized exchanges. 

Bitcoin breaks key on-chain levels, ushering in optimism for 2023

According to Glassnode, the ongoing 2023 rally has propelled Bitcoin’s price well beyond crucial on-chain thresholds, marking a shift in market dynamics.

The Realized Price, calculated from January and inclusive of ancient and lost coins, has soared, placing the average unit of BTC firmly in profit. 

Simultaneously, the True Market Mean Price, established in October, has also been surpassed, indicating that the average active investor is back in the green.

As the market now confidently trades above the True Market Mean Price, which stands at $31.0k, a substantial portion of Bitcoin holders can rejoice in witnessing their portfolios recover from the bear market woes of 2022. 

Bitcoin’s true market mean price
Bitcoin’s true market mean price

This historical trend often signals a positive shift toward a more bullish market sentiment.

For Long-Term Holders, the year-to-date rally has translated into a remarkable increase in the proportion of their holdings residing in profit, surging from 56% to an impressive 84%. 

This surpasses the all-time average value of 81.6%, with previous breakouts above this level correlating historically with robust upward trends in the market.

VanEck charts new territory with “HODL” ticker 

Asset manager VanEck has filed its fifth amended application for a spot Bitcoin ETF, introducing a fresh twist with its choice of ticker symbol – “HODL.” 

The filing submitted to the SEC outlined updates to the VanEck Bitcoin Trust, an investment vehicle designed to allow individuals to purchase shares in a fund mirroring Bitcoin’s market price.

However, the use of “HODL” as the ETF’s ticker symbol has turned heads. 

Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, noted that while crypto enthusiasts would appreciate the reference, the term might be lost on some boomers. 

However, analysts like Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg Intelligence view VanEck’s unconventional approach as a departure from the more conventional choices made by other industry players like BlackRock and Fidelity.

Tweet from Eric Balchunas outlining VanEck’s ticker symbol
Tweet from Eric Balchunas outlining VanEck’s ticker symbol

In the same week, Fidelity Investments engaged in more discussions with the SEC regarding its Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust application for a spot Bitcoin ETF. 

The meeting, detailed in a filing published on December 7, involved representatives from the Cboe BZX Exchange, SEC personnel, and Fidelity executives reviewing the operational intricacies of the proposed ETF.

The dialogue centered on Cboe BZX’s proposed rule change for listing and trading shares of the Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, emphasizing the importance of allowing physical creation and redemption for efficient arbitrage and hedge strategies.

Recent news surrounding the SEC’s meetings with spot Bitcoin ETF applicants signals a broader effort to delve into technical details related to U.S. exchanges listing such ETF shares. 

Amidst varying predictions, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart express confidence in a simultaneous approval of all spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10.

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