After Bitcoin prices fell towards the end of February, the start of March has seen prices rebound and offered plenty else to get excited about.

• J.P. Morgan reveals three ways to value Bitcoin
• Ethereum gas fees to be addressed by July hard fork
• NFT excitement over the ‘genesis’ tweet
• $1.9 trillion US relief bill passed

Bitcoin comes back fighting in March

Optimism flooded back into the cryptocurrency markets this week as Bitcoin came back swinging from its near 21% plunge at the end of February. Although not out of the woods, it indicates there is still a tremendous amount of buying appetite for the cryptocurrency.

A survey released by Goldman Sachs this week found that up to 40% of client responders now have exposure to cryptocurrencies, with half of those predicting a bitcoin price between $40,000 and $100,000. If that news wasn’t uplifting enough, the investment bank is also looking to relaunch its cryptocurrency trading desk which has been on hold for the last 3 years. 

The investment bank action didn’t stop there, JPMorgan announced to its investors three ways in which Bitcoin could be valued currently and onwards into the future. The first, which places the coin’s value at $21,667, is calculated via Metcalfe’s Law, which states its value should be proportional to the square of the number of users. With users increasing every day, this number is likely to rise substantially.

The second method factors in the current market cap of gold. This implies that if the market cap of Bitcoin was to catch up with gold, each bitcoin would be worth $540,814. Not bad you may say, but wait until the third prediction. 

The third and final method involves an ‘end-game’ scenario where Bitcoin replaces the current global monetary system. Their estimates then place each Bitcoin at $1.9 million. Although we may be a long way off that point it is interesting that the likes of J.P. Morgan are speculating about such a scenario.

Promising Ethereum ‘hard fork’ update

Fortunes were also turning up for Ethereum, which recovered from a test of the previous all-time high level of $1400. Some say that Ethereum is lagging behind Bitcoin with regards to price discovery because Ethereum price increases are detrimental to its use as a smart contract platform. A higher price means that transaction costs (called gas fees) are higher, which is driving business on to other platforms.

To combat this problem, Ethereum announced this week the ‘Ethereum Improvement Proposal’ EIP 1559 which is scheduled for July. The July update will include a hard fork for the cryptocurrency and apply a change in the way gas fees are calculated. Instead of gas fees being sent to a miner to be included in a block, the gas fee will now be sent to the network and called a basefee. This basefee will be algorithmically calculated and should ensure fairer transaction costs. Ultimately, it should be a promising move for both Ethereum prices and useability.

An Ethereum hard fork has been approved for July in order to reduce transaction fees

NFT enthusiasm continues with bidding on first ever Tweet

Excitement surrounding Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT’s) continued to reach ‘fever-pitch’ this week. Echoing the ERC-20 token boom and ICOs during 2017, NFTs are the current hot topic in the cryptocurrency sector. The ownership of tokens has been focused on art or digital assets, but there is hope in the future that the technology can expand to proof of ownership for real estate or other larger tangible goods.

To add fuel to the fire, the first ever Tweet, completed by Twitter’s co-founder and CEO Jack Dorsey, was listed for sale this week. At the time of writing, the bidding for this virtually authenticated tweet had reached over $2.5 million! Who even knew you could purchase a tweet? Yet in 2021 here we are.

CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey’s first ever Tweet which is currently under auction and has a top bid of $2.5 million.

One DeFi platform takes a heavy knock

Although a positive week for the cryptocurrency markets in general, not everything was coming up roses in the decentralized finance arena. The Paid Network, a DeFi network targeted at real-world businesses, was unfortunately exploited due to a vulnerability in their private key system. The attacker managed to mint an endless supply of PAID tokens, which were then sold as quickly as possible. Although caught early, the attacker still managed to net $3 million in the sale, driving the price of the PAID cryptocurrency down in the process. Paid are investigating the attack and are looking into the best course of action moving forward.

Incoming inflation and $1.9 trillion relief bill granted

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided some ripples in the bond and stock markets this week, after he spoke on Thursday afternoon. During his speech, he inferred that inflation was likely once the economy was back up and running, but only temporarily. This caused a stir around increasing interest rates in the near-term, which in turn caused bond prices to fall, and caused a spike in treasury yields. The effect was amplified on Friday with the release of positive employment data. For many economists, it provokes a more risk-off stance towards assets such as Bitcoin.  

On Saturday, some of that ‘risk-off’ damage was reversed as the US Senate passed another $1.9 trillion relief plan, which could see most Americans pick up a cheque for $1400 later this year. With payments being handed out by the US government and with no sign of an end to QE on the horizon, the cryptocurrency community and investors can continue to rely on this liquidity to bolster risk appetite for the more speculative asset classes.

Mid-week big tech sell-off

Although the gap is potentially widening, effects from the stock market are still felt within the cryptocurrency market. The correlation is a little blurry but last week indices including the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and Dow Jones experienced a short sell-off, which correlated with a sell-off in the cryptocurrency market.

Most noteworthy was the sell-off in Big Tech stocks, as investors rotate portfolios towards industries that could benefit from the upcoming economic recovery. Many economists have interpreted that the sell-off hindered Bitcoin’s progress, which was beginning to see a bottom form after the prior 21% plunge. Fortunately, the NASDAQ, which is heavily weighted towards US tech stocks rallied hard on Friday, climbing nearly 5% for the day. This left Bitcoin in a much more confident position moving into the weekend.

OPEC+ maintains supply, adding to inflation worries

OPEC+ decided to retain the current supply of oil on Thursday, which may place increased pressure on inflation worries. With oil prices rising nearly 70% since November, many were expecting an increase in the supply to ease such price advances. However, due to the deficits sustained from last year’s lockdowns, OPEC+ is keen to make sure that the demand is once again there before increasing the supply. With Brent UK oil closing out the week at over $69 per barrel, the cost is now back at pre-Covid 19 levels.

The move from OPEC+, alongside increased prices for other worldwide commodities, could provide another warning sign for upcoming inflation, which will continue to weigh heavily on the future of the cryptocurrency markets.

One of the few commodities not to see price increases this week was gold, which continues its fall from all-time highs of $2060 an ounce. Although not helped by a strengthening US dollar, many believe that the commodity has been hindered recently by the liquidity moving into Bitcoin.

Big ticket reports to watch out for this week:

Tuesday – Eurozone GDP figures QoQ & YoY

Wednesday – China and US CPI figures for the month of February

Thursday – European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, US Jobless claims

Friday – UK GDP figures 3-month average and YoY

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