{"id":2594,"date":"2021-10-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xcoins.com\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\/"},"modified":"2025-05-17T15:01:39","modified_gmt":"2025-05-17T15:01:39","slug":"stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xcoins.com\/es\/blog\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock to Flow – \u00bfUn predictor confiable del valor de Bitcoin?"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 es el modelo Stock-to-Flow y c\u00f3mo de relevante es para tu portafolio de cripto? Puesto de manera simple, el Stock to Flow (S2F) es una medida de la cantidad de un activo en particular que existe en relaci\u00f3n a la cantidad que est\u00e1 siendo creada (a\u00f1adida). Es la cantidad total de las reservas de ese activo, dividida por la nueva cantidad que se produce cada a\u00f1o. Se aplica t\u00edpicamente a recursos naturales como el oro, y se centra alrededor del concepto de oferta y demanda.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Cuanto mayor sea la ratio S2F, m\u00e1s baja ser\u00e1 la cantidad de ese producto entrando al mercado en relaci\u00f3n al suministro total. Activos con un S2F alto tienden a retener su valor a lo largo del tiempo. Los bienes consumibles, por contraste, normalmente tienen una ratio S2F baja porque son frecuentemente usados o consumidos por los clientes.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Dado que Bitcoin es, podr\u00eda decirse, el activo digital m\u00e1s escaso del mundo<\/a>, con la ratio S2F, podemos comparar Bitcoin con activos como el oro y otros metales preciosos e intentar predecir el valor de Bitcoin en el tiempo.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00bfCu\u00e1l es la ratio Stock to Flow de Bitcoin?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bitcoin es un dep\u00f3sito de valor con probabilidad de retener su valor durante un largo periodo de tiempo como resultado de su suministro decreciente. Los halvings<\/a> ocurren aproximadamente cada cuatro a\u00f1os, reduciendo la cantidad de nuevo bitcoin creado a la mitad. El hecho de que la divisa digital est\u00e9 limitada a los 21 millones de monedas asegura que el producto se mantendr\u00e1 escaso y que ser\u00e1 dif\u00edcil de obtener a medida que el tiempo progrese y las recompensas de minero se vean reducidas.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"Xcoins\"\r\n
El 89,698% de todo el Bitcoin disponible ya ha sido extra\u00eddo<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

La cantidad de circulaci\u00f3n actual de Bitcoin es de 18 millones, con la adici\u00f3n de 0.7 millones por a\u00f1o en el presente. La ratio S2F actual de Bitcoin (seg\u00fan los c\u00e1lculos del cripto analista Plan B) es de aproximadamente 25. Esto es comparable con la de la plata, de 22, mientras que la del oro est\u00e1 por los 62.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Sin embargo, la diferencia crucial radica en que a diferencia de la plata y el oro, la cantidad de Bitcoin est\u00e1 permanentemente ajustada, y decrecer\u00e1 con el tiempo hasta el momento en que dejen de crearse m\u00e1s bitcoins por completo.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"Xcoins\"\r\n
Las ratios S2F de los metales preciosos (Plan B)<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

El alto valor S2F es el que le permite al oro tener una elasticidad de precio tan baja, indicando la lenta velocidad a la que su oferta crece. De forma similar, Bitcoin demanda un riguroso proceso de extracci\u00f3n de sus mineros, involucrando altas cantidades de electricidad para permitir c\u00e1lculos matem\u00e1ticos complejos.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

El analista de Bitcoin conocido como Plan B, conocido por aplicar el modelo S2F a Bitcoin<\/a>, comparti\u00f3 recientemente una predicci\u00f3n por la que la criptomoneda alcanzar\u00eda los 100,000 d\u00f3lares para Navidad dado su valor actual.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Aunque muchos dudan que este vaya a ser el caso despu\u00e9s de la ca\u00edda de Bitcoin durante el verano tras las conflictivas acciones de Elon Musk<\/a>, desde luego no ser\u00eda la primera vez que Bitcoin estalla contrariamente a las predicciones de sus cr\u00edticos. Dado el \u00e9xito que el modelo S2F ha demostrado tener a la hora de predecir los precios del oro, la plata y, de hecho, Bitcoin hasta la fecha, si suficientes usuarios creen en la viabilidad del modelo respecto a Bitcoin, podr\u00eda convertirse en una profec\u00eda autocumplida.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"Xcoins\"\r\n
El gr\u00e1fico elaborado con el modelo Stock to Flow de Plan B sugiere que BTC alcanzar\u00e1 los 111,300$ antes de Navidad.<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Usando el modelo S2F, Plan B sugiri\u00f3 que aproximadamente un a\u00f1o despu\u00e9s del halving de Bitcoin de mayo de 2020, la moneda alcanzar\u00eda un valor de 55,000$ por BTC. Para marzo de 2021, un Bitcoin val\u00eda 58,734.48$. Aunque solo el tiempo podr\u00e1 decir cu\u00e1l ser\u00e1 su valor para Navidad, dado el \u00e9xito del modelo en el pasado, si sus predicciones siguen suscitando confianza, tal vez sea buena idea invertir antes del siguiente salto.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Limitaciones del modelo S2F<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Mientras que el modelo S2F podr\u00eda ser una herramienta \u00fatil que nos permita comparar Bitcoin con otros activos, no deber\u00eda comprenderse de forma aislada. El modelo opera bajo la asunci\u00f3n de que la escasez deber\u00eda conducir el precio de Bitcoin, lo cual es parcialmente verdadero \u2013 no obstante, otros factores y eventos an\u00f3malos tambi\u00e9n pueden contribuir a modificar el valor de Bitcoin, sin mencionar los tuits de Elon Musk.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

El S2F tampoco puede salvar la inmensa volatilidad de Bitcoin. Mientras que la criptomoneda se ha ido haciendo m\u00e1s estable con los a\u00f1os, a\u00fan atraviesa picos como resultado del hecho de que opera en un libre mercado y est\u00e1 por tanto bajo la influencia de partes interesadas que moldean el mercado (sus usuarios, traders e inversores). Su baja liquidez en comparaci\u00f3n con productos como el oro, tambi\u00e9n explica sus fluctuaciones. Las valoraciones a largo plazo tambi\u00e9n son en parte dif\u00edciles de creer dado que Bitcoin solo lleva una d\u00e9cada existiendo.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

El resultado<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

El modelo S2F puede ser una herramienta \u00fatil, en la medida en que nos permite cuantificar la escasez relativa de Bitcoin en comparaci\u00f3n a los metales preciosos y otros activos. Fundamentalmente, todos los modelos est\u00e1n limitados por sus inputs y el S2F no es diferente. Esto significa que el modelo deber\u00eda ser considerado en conjunci\u00f3n con otros factores, pero dado su \u00e9xito al predecir el valor de Bitcoin en el pasado, el modelo S2F es ciertamente digno de tomar en consideraci\u00f3n.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Como siempre, este art\u00edculo no constituye consejo financiero y deber\u00edas estar seguro de realizar tu propia investigaci\u00f3n y consultar con un asesor financiero profesional antes de realizar ninguna decisi\u00f3n de inversi\u00f3n.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Para mantenerte actualizado sobre todo lo relacionado con las criptomonedas, puedes dar me gusta a Xcoins en\u00a0Facebook<\/a>, seguirnos en\u00a0Twitter<\/a>\u00a0y\u00a0LinkedIn<\/a>\u00a0y registrarte en la parte inferior de esta p\u00e1gina para suscribirte.<\/em><\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00bfQu\u00e9 es el modelo Stock-to-Flow y c\u00f3mo de relevante es para tu portafolio de cripto? Puesto de manera simple, el […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":911,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[758,756,757],"tags":[291,347,348,292,299,349,336],"class_list":["post-2594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-academia-2","category-analisis-de-mercado-2","category-bitcoin-categoria","tag-inversion","tag-liquidez","tag-modelo","tag-oro","tag-precio","tag-prediccion","tag-valor"],"yoast_head":"\nStock to Flow - \u00bfUn predictor confiable del valor de Bitcoin? | xcoins.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"C\u00f3mo usar y en qu\u00e9 consiste el modelo stock to flow para predecir el valor futuro de Bitcoin, la criptomoneda reina.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/xcoins.com\/es\/blog\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock to Flow - \u00bfUn predictor confiable del valor de Bitcoin?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"C\u00f3mo usar y en qu\u00e9 consiste el modelo stock to flow para predecir el valor futuro de Bitcoin, la criptomoneda reina.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/xcoins.com\/es\/blog\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Xcoins\u2122 Official\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/xcoinsofficial\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-10-08T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-17T15:01:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/xcoins.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/stock-to-flow-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"golali@xcoins.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@realxcoins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@realxcoins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"golali@xcoins.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"golali@xcoins.com\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4e7ee9402edb8e2dbd03b0c1f77a8a0b\"},\"headline\":\"Stock to Flow – \u00bfUn predictor confiable del valor de Bitcoin?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-10-08T00:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-05-17T15:01:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1050,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/stock-to-flow-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"inversi\u00f3n\",\"liquidez\",\"modelo\",\"oro\",\"precio\",\"predicci\u00f3n\",\"valor\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Academia Cripto\",\"An\u00e1lisis de Mercado\",\"Bitcoin\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/stock-to-flow-un-predictor-confiable-del-valor-de-bitcoin\\\/\",\"name\":\"Stock to Flow - \u00bfUn predictor confiable del valor de Bitcoin? 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