{"id":15791,"date":"2026-02-06T13:58:29","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T13:58:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xcoins.com\/?p=15791"},"modified":"2026-02-06T13:58:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T13:58:29","slug":"is-bitcoin-entrando-en-un-nuevo-invierno-cripto-un-analisis-del-mercado-basado-en-ciclos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xcoins.com\/es\/blog\/is-bitcoin-entrando-en-un-nuevo-invierno-cripto-un-analisis-del-mercado-basado-en-ciclos\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfEst\u00e1 Bitcoin entrando en un nuevo invierno cripto? Un an\u00e1lisis del mercado basado en ciclos"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despu\u00e9s de las \u00faltimas ca\u00eddas, cabe preguntarse si ya se ha iniciado un nuevo crypto invierno y, de ser as\u00ed, hasta d\u00f3nde y cuanto durar\u00e1<\/p>\n

\u00bfEstamos ante un nuevo crypto invierno?<\/h2>\n

Como dec\u00eda Mark Twain: \u201cLa historia no se repite pero rima\u201d.<\/p>\n

Si miramos al pasado, es inevitable comprobar la repetici\u00f3n de ciertos patrones preocupantes como la ruptura de la gran zona pivote despu\u00e9s de lo que parece ser una formaci\u00f3n de vuelta (doble techo o taza con asa).<\/p>\n

Lo cierto es que la secuencia de minimos y m\u00e1ximos semanales crecientes se ha alterado y se empiezn a marcar nuevos m\u00ednimos. Esto parece indicar que, efectivamente, estamos ante un nuevo crypto invierno<\/p>\n

\"Weekly
Source: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00bfHasta d\u00f3nde podr\u00eda llegar?<\/h2>\n

Analizando el pasado podemos intentar inferir el movimiento futuro<\/p>\n

El crypto invierno que tuvo lugar entre 2017 y 2018 gener\u00f3 una ca\u00edda de BTC alrededor del 84% desde m\u00e1ximos a m\u00ednimos. El que tuvo lugar entre 2021 y 2022 se sald\u00f3 con una ca\u00edda del 77%. Aunque no existen datos estad\u00edsticos suficientes, cabe imaginar que es posible ver una ca\u00edda en torno al 70% en esta ocasi\u00f3n. Esto llevar\u00eda BTC al entorno de los 37k USD.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly
Source: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00bfHasta cuando podr\u00eda durar?<\/h2>\n

El crypto-invierno de 2017 transcurri\u00f3, contando de m\u00e1ximos a m\u00ednimos, entre el 17 de Diciembre de 2017 hasta el 15 de Diciembre de 2018, es decir, dur\u00f3 363 d\u00edas.<\/p>\n

El crypto-invierno de 2020 transcurri\u00f3, contando de m\u00e1ximos a m\u00ednimos, entre el 10 de Noviembre de 2021 hasta el 21 de Noviembre de 2022, es decir, dur\u00f3 376 d\u00edas.<\/p>\n

Utilizando esto y asumiendo que el m\u00e1ximo de esta nueva fase alcista se produjo el 6 de Octubre de 2025, podemos inferir que este nuevo cryptoinvierno deber\u00eda terminar entre:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. El 4 de Octubre de 2026 y tendr\u00eda una duraci\u00f3n de 363 d\u00edas<\/li>\n
  2. El 30 de Octubre de 2026 y tendr\u00eda una duraci\u00f3n de 389 d\u00edas (376+13)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u00bfCual es la trampa?<\/h2>\n

    Lo cierto es que en trading todo es relativo y teniendo tan poca historia en el activo, a\u00fan m\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

    Este an\u00e1lisis puede verse alterado por mil factores, tanto financieros como geopol\u00edticos con lo que lo expuesto se trata de una mera conjetura basada en el pasado.<\/p>\n

    Lo \u00fanico que se puede hacer es sentarse a observar la evoluci\u00f3n de los crypto activos y, en caso de querer anticiparse, realizar una estrategia de compra basada en DCA (Dollar Cost Average) para is posicion\u00e1ndose poco a poco.<\/p>\n

    La verdad \u00faltima es que nadie sabe que podr\u00eda pasar, utilizamos las probabilidades y la historia para hacer suposiciones acertadas con la esperanza de acertar. De momento, nadie tiene la bola de cristal que permite adivinar el futuro.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Despu\u00e9s de las \u00faltimas ca\u00eddas, cabe preguntarse si ya se ha iniciado un nuevo crypto invierno y, de ser as\u00ed, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":15764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[757,759],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-categoria","category-noticias-cripto-2"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfBitcoin entra en un nuevo invierno cripto? 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Un an\u00e1lisis del mercado basado en ciclos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Examinamos los ciclos de mercado anteriores de Bitcoin y sus ca\u00eddas para evaluar si podr\u00eda estar form\u00e1ndose un nuevo invierno cripto.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/xcoins.com\/es\/blog\/is-bitcoin-entrando-en-un-nuevo-invierno-cripto-un-analisis-del-mercado-basado-en-ciclos\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Xcoins\u2122 Official\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/xcoinsofficial\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-06T13:58:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/xcoins.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/u1744345648_httpss.mj_.runB-SeV2N59G8_Using_the_reference_imag_0293a883-a62b-4adc-97e4-7b65f4519e07_2.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1232\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"928\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"sophie eliades\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@realxcoins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@realxcoins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"sophie eliades\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/is-bitcoin-entrando-en-un-nuevo-invierno-cripto-un-analisis-del-mercado-basado-en-ciclos\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/blog\\\/is-bitcoin-entrando-en-un-nuevo-invierno-cripto-un-analisis-del-mercado-basado-en-ciclos\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"sophie eliades\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/xcoins.com\\\/es\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9e103f9454799f9618f4f542bf3c5fb4\"},\"headline\":\"\u00bfEst\u00e1 Bitcoin entrando en un nuevo invierno cripto? 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